FX markets seem to be positioning for a Trump victory in next month's US presidential election. October seems to have been a good month for Donald Trump in opinion polls and the US Dollar (USD) is bid across the board. Interestingly in the week to last Tuesday (15th) speculators and in particular asset managers bought the USD heavily against the euro, but also against the Canadian dollar. Canadian dollar and Mexican peso would not have as easy a ride as they did back in 2018/19 if Trump was re-relected, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

USD is rallying broadly

“It is with US elections looming large that FX markets this week face the challenge of geopolitics. The IMF meetings in Washington are more a forum for central bankers to share their latest views (and many central bank governors will be speaking), but we also have Russia hosting a BRICS summit and no end in sight for Middle East tension. Geopolitics in the driving seat is evidenced by gold pushing above $2700/oz even though the USD is rallying broadly.” 

“It is hard to see this dynamic changing substantially over the next couple of weeks. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve does release its Beige Book report ahead of the next FOMC meeting on 7 November. Many believe the soft showing of the prior Beige Book release prompted the FOMC to start with a 50bp cut in September. This release is probably seen as the biggest threat to the USD this week. Yet, US consumption and the labour market have held up recently, and there is no guarantee that this week's Beige Book release will push interest rate markets into pricing 50bp of Fed easing this year compared to current pricing of just 43bp.”

“The USD has come quite a long way in a short space of time. But unless the Beige Book surprises on the downside or Thursday's European PMIs miraculously surprise on the upside, it seems that DXY will probably stay bid in the top end of a 103-104 range.”