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View the daily news commentary to obtain insight on the financial markets.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average fell from previous -2.5K to -13.5K in November 8

November 25, 2025, 1:16:55 PM UTC
United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average fell from previous -2.5K to -13.5K in November 8
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EUR/USD wavers in range ahead of US Retail Sales, PPI data

November 25, 2025, 12:42:18 PM UTC
EUR/USD posts mild gains on Tuesday's European session, but remains trapped below 1.1550, changing hands at 1.1530 at the time of writing.
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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stands above $4,100 amid Fed easing hopes

November 25, 2025, 12:29:23 PM UTC
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading practically flat on Tuesday, holding most of the gains taken on Monday.
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Gold steadies as December Fed rate-cut bets rise ahead of key US data

November 25, 2025, 12:12:31 PM UTC
Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Tuesday as traders price a greater likelihood of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in December following dovish-leaning remarks from policymakers.
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Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) declined to 0% in September from previous 0.6%

November 25, 2025, 12:00:43 PM UTC
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) declined to 0% in September from previous 0.6%
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Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) up to 3.3% in September from previous 2.4%

November 25, 2025, 12:00:43 PM UTC
Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) up to 3.3% in September from previous 2.4%
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USD/JPY dips as Japan intervention talk grows, US data in focus

November 25, 2025, 11:52:15 AM UTC
USD/JPY trades around 156.50 at the time of writing on Tuesday, down 0.20% on the day, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) fails to attract meaningful buying interest.
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Copper market still well supplied according to ICSG in September – Commerzbank

November 25, 2025, 11:50:01 AM UTC
September Copper data showed a 57,000-ton deficit, but seasonally adjusted figures point to a slight surplus, suggesting the market remains well supplied despite recent price rallies, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.
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Gold surges above $4,150 amid Fed rate cut bets – Commerzbank

November 25, 2025, 11:47:44 AM UTC
The price of Gold rose to $4,155 per troy ounce this morning. Since Friday afternoon, the price has risen by more than $100. The price increase was triggered by rising expectations of an interest rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in two weeks, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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Russian Oil supply limited despite sanctions relief – Commerzbank

November 25, 2025, 11:44:05 AM UTC
Even with potential US sanctions easing, Russian Oil output is unlikely to surge, as OPEC+ production limits and near-capacity operations constrain any significant increase, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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Ukraine peace talks weigh on Oil prices – Commerzbank

November 25, 2025, 11:39:07 AM UTC
New diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine have been putting pressure on Oil prices since the end of last week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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NZD/USD consolidates losses around 0.5600 with all eyes on the RBNZ

November 25, 2025, 11:31:18 AM UTC
The New Zealand Dollar is hesitating around the 0.5600 level for the second consecutive day on Tuesday.
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USD: Rate cut speculation raises concerns – UBS

November 25, 2025, 11:12:19 AM UTC
In a recent audio comment, UBS's Paul Donovan discusses the implications of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller's advocacy for a December rate cut, emphasizing the potential risks to the US economy.
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When is the US Retail Sales data and how could it affect EUR/USD?

November 25, 2025, 10:57:31 AM UTC
With the US Government open again after a 43-day shutdown, federal agencies are scrambling through a backlog of data to deliver a stream of delayed macroeconomic releases. The focus today is on September’s US Retail Sales report.
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Germany 5-y Note Auction up to 2.27% from previous 2.21%

November 25, 2025, 10:48:52 AM UTC
Germany 5-y Note Auction up to 2.27% from previous 2.21%
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USD/JPY: The likelihood of rising to 158.00 is diminishing – UOB Group

November 25, 2025, 10:46:26 AM UTC
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade between 156.35 and 157.30. In the longer run, the likelihood of USD rising to 158.00 is diminishing, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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Silver declines as firm US Dollar, risk tone weigh on safe-haven appeal

November 25, 2025, 10:45:16 AM UTC
Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower on Tuesday, around $51.20 at the time of writing. Despite this decline, any meaningful correction remains limited, as investors continue to show interest in the white metal amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty and a growing likelihood of further US monetary easing.
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NZD/USD: Likely to consolidate within a range of 0.5595/0.5630 – UOB Group

November 25, 2025, 10:41:12 AM UTC
Momentum indicators are mostly flat; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to consolidate within a range of 0.5595/0.5630. In the longer run, NZD is expected to move lower; if it breaks below 0.5565, it could decline further to 0.5540, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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AUD/USD: Scope for AUD to test 0.6405 – UOB Group

November 25, 2025, 10:37:37 AM UTC
Further range-trading appears likely; firmer underlying tone suggests a higher range of 0.6445/0.6485. In the longer run, the price action suggests there is scope for AUD to test 0.6405, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 1.3040 and 1.3165 – UOB Group

November 25, 2025, 10:34:44 AM UTC
Downward momentum has faded; Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.3040 and 1.3165, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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EUR/USD: Likely to consolidate between 1.1495 and 1.1545 – UOB Group

November 25, 2025, 10:31:31 AM UTC
Euro (EUR) is likely to consolidate between 1.1495 and 1.1545. In the longer run, the likelihood of EUR breaking below 1.1470 has increased; EUR must close below 1.1470 before further declines are likely, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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NZD weakens ahead of RBNZ rate decision – BBH

November 25, 2025, 10:27:47 AM UTC
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trading heavy ahead of the RBNZ policy rate decision. The RBNZ is expected to trim the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 2.25%. At its last October 8 meeting, the RBNZ slashed the OCR by 50bps to 2.50% and stressed it 'remains open to further reductions in the OCR'.
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Yen under pressure amid speculative testing – ING

November 25, 2025, 10:24:50 AM UTC
The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces continued pressure as geopolitical tensions over Taiwan and speculative trading test authorities’ tolerance, with potential Bank of Japan intervention looming during the thin Thanksgiving week, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
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USD holds above 200-DMA amid cautious sentiment – BBH

November 25, 2025, 10:22:14 AM UTC
US Dollar (USD) is trading on the defensive and holding above its 200-day moving average.
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USD: Ukraine peace talks remain in focus for markets – ING

November 25, 2025, 10:17:46 AM UTC
Geopolitical news should remain central today. The US has softened its stance on Thursday’s deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace deal with Russia, and a new 19-point deal is set to be discussed in the coming days.
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RBNZ expected to cut rates by 25bps tonight – ING

November 25, 2025, 10:04:50 AM UTC
The RBNZ is set to cut rates by 25bps to 2.25%, likely signaling the end of easing and providing support for NZD/USD toward 0.570 by year-end, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
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Nasdaq 100 reclaims October lows amid weak downward momentum – Société Générale

November 25, 2025, 9:47:48 AM UTC
Nasdaq 100 rebounds from interim lows but faces resistance near 25,650 points, with technical signals suggesting a brief bounce before potential continuation of the pullback, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
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EUR/GBP implied volatility hits highest since 2022 mini-budget – ING

November 25, 2025, 9:41:11 AM UTC
EUR/GBP implied volatility spikes as markets adopt a cautious stance ahead of tomorrow’s UK Budget, with the pair expected to trade around 0.880 unless new developments emerge, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
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USD/JPY rise slows amid growing intervention talk – OCBC

November 25, 2025, 9:27:23 AM UTC
The recent rise in USD/JPY continues to slow. Japan’s growth minister Minoru Kiuchi said the government is watching currency movements, including speculative activity, with a high sense of urgency. Pair was last seen at 156.30 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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USD/CNH struggles to break 50-DMA at 7.12 – Société Générale

November 25, 2025, 9:20:29 AM UTC
USD/CNH faces downward pressure after failing to clear 7.12, with technical patterns pointing to a possible drop toward 7.05–7.01 if key support at 7.08 gives way, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
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There is a high level of risk in Margined Transaction products, as Contract for Difference (CFDs) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to the leverage. Trading CFDs may not be suitable for all traders as it could result in the loss of the total deposit or incur a negative balance; only use risk capital.

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