TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that Gold has lagged the broader commodity basket, especially Oil and base metals, as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran persist without a deal.

Iran's Tasnim News agency claimed on Monday that Iran's negotiating team is stopping message exchanges with the United States (US) through mediators in protest against attacks on Lebanon.

Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 52.9 in May from previous 53.3

MUFG’s Teppei Ino notes USD/JPY is encountering strong topside resistance and potential intervention risks just below 160.

Societe Generale analysts note Brent has pulled back after forming a lower high and slipping under its 50-day moving average. They highlight nearby trend-line support around $91/90 and a deeper support zone near $86.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Eurozone May Consumer Price Index (CPI) to remain close to the European Central Bank's (ECB) baseline projections, with risks skewed slightly lower after softer German data. Markets have nearly fully priced a 25 bps hike to 2.25% on June 11.

Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 (May) vs previous 52.6

Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week with a negative bias as slow progress toward a US-Iran ceasefire extension deal and fresh attacks in the Middle East keep buyers cautious. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,500 after hitting a two-week high near $4,595 on Friday.

TD Securities strategists note that recent US rate moves reflected shifting headlines on Iran and month-end flows, while upcoming US data will be crucial.

BNY’s Bob Savage flags softer Australian activity, with manufacturing PMI only marginally in expansion as new and export orders fall and cost pressures stay intense. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge dipped on fuel, while national home values were flat, with Sydney and Melbourne declining.

South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales rose from previous 47979 to 51071 in May

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that the Polish Zloty has underperformed CE3 - Polish Złoty (PLN), Czech Koruna (CZK), and Hungarian Forint (HUF) - peers in 2026, with political risk overshadowing macro fundamentals.

The Euro (EUR) prints minor losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with momentum indicators pointing to fading bullish strength after rejection at the recent range top of 1.1660.

Societe Generale analysts underline that USD/JPY has rebounded after defending a multi-month ascending trend line and 200-day moving average near 155. The pair is edging toward the April high at 160.50/160.70, seen as crucial resistance.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that Sweden’s benign inflation and spare capacity support an extended Riksbank hold. While the central bank projects its policy rate at 1.75% until late 2026, swaps price a more aggressive tightening path.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley expects EUR/USD to stay largely range-bound near key moving averages as markets await clarity on a potential US-Iran deal and US data that could shift Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.

USD/JPY trades around 159.50 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.13% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed safe-haven demand amid a worsening market sentiment backdrop.

BNY’s Bob Savage notes that the US Dollar (USD) is firmer, with US Dollar Index (DXY) slightly higher as bond yields rise and risk sentiment turns cautious.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi warns of serious consequences, in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the United States (US) and Israel would face serious consequences if there were any military action across all fronts, including Lebanon.

The British Pound (GBP) remains practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, trading both sides of the 1.3450 level, with investors wary of taking excessive risks.

The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.7175 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair consolidates as uncertainty regarding the United States (US)-Iran negotiations toward a permanent peace deal has escalated.

MUFG’s Halpenny argues that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to hike 25 bps on 16 June, with markets pricing around an 80% chance.

India Industrial Output came in at 4.9%, above forecasts (3.9%) in April

India Manufacturing Output climbed from previous 4.3% to 6.2% in April

TD Securities analysts report that Canada’s Q1 GDP and March output surprised sharply to the downside, confirming a technical recession and dampening expectations for 2026 rate hikes.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades lower on Monday, reverting Friday’s gains and returning to the $4,500 atrea following rejection at the $4,590 resistance area.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades firmly against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy week.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is facing notable headwinds following unexpected data showing that Canada’s economy has entered a technical recession.

EUR/JPY trades around 185.80 at the time of writing on Monday, up a modest 0.05% on the day.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Swiss inflation remains comfortably within the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) price stability definition, with May Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to stay subdued.