Russia Foreign Trade fell from previous $6.597B to $5.353B in February

BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stressing vigilance over higher Oil prices and global financial instability.

Societe Generale analysts note a quiet week for the UK, with the March RICS housing survey pointing to weaker demand as higher energy costs and mortgage rates weigh on confidence.

Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at -8.4%, below expectations (-0.5%) in February

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the US Dollar (USD) has benefited from renewed safe haven demand and reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, with EUR/USD currently testing below 1.17.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) narrow 5–4 decision to hike in March leaves upcoming labor data crucial for timing the next move.

ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Oil markets rallied sharply after US-Iran talks collapsed, with ICE Brent jumping over 9% and NYMEX WTI moving above $105/bbl. The US plans a maritime blockade around Iranian ports, stoking supply fears.

Deutsche Bank economists report the Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates at 3.50%-3.75% in March and still expects a 25 bp cut in September. Markets price only modest easing. They warn a prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade could push Brent toward USD 120.

The EUR/USD pair recovers a majority of its opening losses, but is still 0.2% down to near 1.1700 during the late European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair is still under pressure as renewed geopolitical tensions have prompted a risk-off mood.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3840 at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on Monday after briefly advancing earlier in the day.

The (EUR) retreated from last week’s highs near 1.1740 against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, but so far is holding well, a few pips shy of the 1.1700 level, after bouncing from session lows at the 1.1670 area during the early Asian session.

TD Securities strategists discuss Canadian by-elections in three federal ridings and notes that Prime Minister Carney’s Liberals are close to securing a majority in Parliament.

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading practically flat, right above the $74.00 level at the time of writing, after having hit session lows at $72.61.

The US Dollar (USD) is giving away previous gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF), as the pair remains trapped within a roughly 70-pip range around 0.7900 on Monday, with upside attempts capped below the 0.7925-0.7930 area.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced at session lows to 0.6990 against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) on Monday to close a previous trading gap in the area of 0.7055.

Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen argues that, despite Iran’s Renminbi toll plans and geopolitical tensions, the US Dollar (USD) remains structurally dominant in trade and reserves.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against its major currency peers, trading 0.25% lower to near 1.3425 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday.

EUR/HUF falls sharply on Monday, with the Euro (EUR) weakening against the Hungarian Forint (HUF) as the cross slides to its lowest level since February 2022. The Forint strengthens across the board after a landslide election victory by opposition leader Péter Magyar boosts investor confidence.

The Indian Rupee (INR) falls sharply in the opening trade against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week.

Danske Research notes that Norway’s March core inflation remained at 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below consensus and in line with Norges Bank’s projection, while headline inflation printed at 3.6% year-on-year.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent Oil back above $100 and lifted the US Dollar (USD) as risk aversion returns.

EUR/JPY trades around 186.65 on Monday, down 0.08% at the time of writing, as risk aversion increases following the failure of talks between the United States (US) and Iran.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) economists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes that USD/JPY has surged on the open after a quiet Friday, with short-term momentum now strong enough to challenge the 160.00 handle, though 160.50 is seen as tough resistance.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $74.47 per troy ounce, down 1.75% from the $75.79 it cost on Friday.

ING’s Chris Turner writes that EUR/USD was pressured in Asia by higher Oil after failed peace talks, but notes the pair is holding above 1.1600.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% higher to near 99.00 during the European trading session on Monday.

Societe Generale economists Anatoli Annenkov, Michel Martinez, Fabien Bossy and Sam Cartwright argue that upside risks to Euro area core inflation justify bringing forward European Central Bank rate hikes.

Oil prices jumped on Monday following the failure of the peace talks between the US and Iran and the US pledge to block the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold (XAU/USD) touches a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session and looks to build on its intraday bounce from the $4,633-$4,632 area, or a four-day low, touched earlier this Monday.

Danske Research Team reports that Hungary’s election delivered a decisive victory for Péter Magyar’s pro‑EU Tisza party over Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, easing concerns about future EU budget and Ukraine aid negotiations.