GBP/JPY trades flat on Friday after slipping earlier in the European session, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened amid rising intervention fears. The move comes as USD/JPY trades within striking distance of the 160.00 level, a key zone that previously prompted action from Japanese authorities.

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations above forecasts (3.4%) in March: Actual (3.8%)

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 51.7 below forecasts (54.1) in March

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (3.2%) in March

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 53.3 below forecasts (54) in March

Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer updates Euro area inflation projections incorporating the Iran War and associated energy shock. The bank expects higher Oil and natural gas prices to push headline inflation above 3% in 2026 before easing back to the ECB’s 2% target by 2027.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that global risk sentiment is deteriorating as Oil rises, equities and bonds fall, and the Dollar strengthens.

Halpenny stresses that the extension of Trump’s pause only on attacks against energy assets, combined with Iran’s limited tanker gestures, suggests the Strait of Hormuz will stay constrained.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady to slightly firmer versus the Dollar despite weak risk appetite, helped by a modest bid for commodity currencies.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to build on its gains on Friday as evolving geopolitical headlines surrounding the US-Israel war with Iran continue to drive volatility across global markets.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich observes that recent equity weakness has not produced a stronger Dollar, suggesting its traditional safe-haven role is less dominant than before.

The US Dollar (USD) keeps marching higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Friday.

ING’s Chris Turner argues that EUR/USD remains under pressure as investors position for further Middle East escalation and tighter global financial conditions. He notes that Sovereign Wealth Fund retrenchment and hawkish European Central Bank pricing weigh on the pair.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team reviews Banxico’s March 26 decision to cut the overnight policy rate by 25bp to 6.75%. The move was a close call, with two governors preferring to keep rates at 7.00%.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang highlights a weakening technical backdrop for AUD/USD after the pair broke below a rising wedge and tested the Ichimoku cloud base near 0.6870.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers, trading marginally higher to near 0.6900 against the US Dollar (USD) during the late European trading session on Friday.

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ climbed from previous $-1.248B to $-1.09B in February

Mexico Jobless Rate meets forecasts (2.6%) in February

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a up to 2.7% in February from previous 2.6%

Mexico Trade Balance, $ came in at $-0.463B below forecasts ($1.2B) in February

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that the US Dollar’s initial weakness after President Trump extended the pause in attacks on Iran’s energy assets has been short-lived, with DXY only slightly lower.

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects a relatively quiet UK data week, with focus on March DMP survey signals around the Iran conflict, inflation expectations, and hiring plans. He forecasts only marginal upside risk to Q4-25 GDP, with the ONS likely confirming 0.1% q-o-q growth.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Madis Müller said in an interview with Econostream that the central bank might need to wait for the release of second-round inflation effects before making any monetary policy adjustment.

The US Dollar (USD) is outperforming its peers on Friday, including the safe-haven Yen (JPY).

India FX Reserves, USD: $698.35B (March 16) vs previous $709.76B

Commerzbank’s Jörg Krämer expects the ECB to react to war‑driven energy inflation with at most one additional rate hike. Inflation is projected to rise above 3% by summer before easing, while Eurozone growth is revised down to 0.6% in 2026.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that Japanese officials are escalating verbal intervention as USD/JPY approaches 160.00, a potential line in the sand.

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends opening losses against the US Dollar (USD) in afternoon trading hours in India on Friday .

Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) declined to 0.8% in February from previous 3%

Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 1.5% to -0.8% in February