Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 47.3 to 49 in March

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is scheduled to release the March Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Wednesday. Market participants anticipate it would ease modestly to 52.3 from the 52.4 posted in February.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a mild upside bias on Wednesday, building on the previous day's solid gains as optimism grows that the US-Israel war with Iran could end soon.

In a post published on Truth Social on Wednesday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that Iran’s New Regime President, who is "much less radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors," has asked the US for a ceasefire.

RaboBank's Global Strategist Michael Every highlights that Gulf War 3 and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Oil prices about 60% above pre-war levels, with specific products like diesel and jet fuel particularly affected in Asia.

Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose 0.6% to $738.4 billion in February, the US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. This print followed the 0.1% contraction recorded in January and came in slightly better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.5%.

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz argue that the US economy is better positioned to absorb higher Oil prices than in past crises. Lower oil intensity, near self-sufficiency and experience from the 2022 shock support resilience.

GBP/JPY rebounds on Wednesday, as signs of easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran improve market sentiment and support risk appetite.

While speaking to Reuters at the Bank of England's (BoE) London headquarters on Reuters, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey argued that markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in interest-rate hikes.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin told Reuters on Wednesday that he does not see inflation expectations at the risk of breaking out.

United States Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 3.7% in February from previous 3.2%

United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) above forecasts (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.5%)

United States Retail Sales Control Group increased to 0.5% in February from previous 0.3%

United States Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (0.5%) in February

ING economist Min Joo Kang notes that Japanese business sentiment remains relatively firm, with the Tankan Survey and Manufacturing PMI both in expansionary territory.

Private employers added 62K jobs in March, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday. This reading followed the 66K increase (revised from 63K) recorded in the previous month and came in above the market expectation of 40K growth.

United States ADP Employment Change above expectations (40K) in March: Actual (62K)

HSBC’s global CIO team keeps an Overweight six‑month view on global equities, supported by AI‑related opportunities and resilient earnings. They favour the United States, Japan and Asia ex‑Japan, while staying Underweight Europe ex‑UK and Neutral on Emerging Markets overall.

Gold (XAU/USD) appreciates for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) tumbles as hopes of a quick end to the Iran war have improved risk appetite and triggered significant pullbacks in US Treasury yields.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights a sharp pullback in Brent and WTI as markets price a possible end to the Iran conflict within weeks, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, claws back half of its early losses during the European trading session on Wednesday. Still, the oil price is down 1.5% to near $96.00.

UOB analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight a sharp USD/JPY drop from near 160.00 to around 158.70, with scope for further declines toward 158.00 while a sustained move below that level is not yet anticipated.

TD Securities analysts highlight that strong February US Retail Sales and a third consecutive rise in ISM Manufacturing could support the Dollar in coming days.

USD/JPY trades around 158.50 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.14% on the day after touching a little over a one-week low near 158.27 earlier in the day.

ING’s Francesco Pesole writes that EUR/GBP volatility has reflected shifting rate differentials, but Bank of England (BoE) pricing may fall faster than for the European Central Bank (ECB) .

MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny argues that while risk sentiment has improved on hopes the US will soon end its conflict with Iran, the recovery looks fragile and the US Dollar is likely to weaken again.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said during the European trading session on Wednesday that the central bank will make any monetary policy adjustment when officials have sufficient data regarding the consequences of the Middle East war.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading lower across the board on Wednesday, extending its reversal against the Swiss Franc (CHF) to session lows at 0.7925 so far, from highs above 0.8040 highs on Tuesday.Investors’ appetite for risk is crushing the Greenback on Wednesday, following comments by US President

United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous -10.5% to -10.4% in March 27

International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said during European trading hours on Wednesday that the ongoing oil supply crisis is worse than the two in the 1970s and Russia-related in 2022 put together.