United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.3%) in May

United States Capacity Utilization meets forecasts (76.2%) in May

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, United States (US) Vice President JD Vance said that they expect the Strait of Hormuz to be "open toll-free in the long term," per Reuters.

Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on a positive note, rising more than 2.5% after the United States (US) and Iran reached a framework agreement to end the war in the Middle East.

Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in April: Actual (0.6%)

United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index below expectations (14) in June: Actual (5.7)

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $70.70 at the time of writing on Monday, up 3.94% on the day. The white metal is extending its rebound and benefiting from a backdrop marked by a weaker US Dollar (USD) and expectations surrounding the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.

Esmail Baghaei Hamaneh, the Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, said on Monday that respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon is a part of the interim agreement with the United States (US).

Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) came in at 261.4K, above forecasts (255.1K) in May

MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that Oil prices have fallen back toward USD80 per barrel as markets anticipate normalized flows through the Strait of Hormuz after the US-Iran agreement.

BNY’s Bob Savage notes that the Japanese Yen is in focus as FX markets react to geopolitical de-escalation and shifting risk sentiment. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has supported risk assets, but investors remain attentive to policy divergence involving JPY, KRW and USD.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading without a clear bias against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday.

Deutsche Bank reviews performance of Oil, bonds, European equities and precious metals from late February to last Friday during the conflict. The bank notes Oil and AI-related trades surged, while bonds, most European equities and precious metals fell.

According to BNY’s Bob Savage, the Dollar is trading within a broader risk-on environment after the U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased energy supply concerns. FX markets are highly sensitive to policy divergence, with USD trends reassessed alongside JPY and KRW.

According to the June 11-15 Reuters poll, all 35 economists predicted that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) would keep its policy rate at 0% this week. 28 economists ​who responded with forecasts until the end of 2026 saw rates staying at 0% the entire year.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman observes that the Japanese Yen has not benefited from lower energy prices, with USD/JPY still above 160.00 ahead of the BoJ meeting.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) Peter Kazimir seems to be joining his peers in highlighting the need for further monetary policy adjustments on the upside despite the United States (US) and Iran reaching a peace framework.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) discusses USD/CAD, noting the pair has been consolidating and may remain range-bound. The bank highlights that recent moves reflect shifting expectations for Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada policy.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $4,340 at the time of writing on Monday, up 2.86% on the day and extending the rebound that began on Thursday from the $4,024 area.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trims previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as markets ponder the peace agreement between the US and Iran, ahead of a central bank-busy week.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues note Brent has dropped sharply after the US–Iran MoU and reopening prospects for the Strait of Hormuz, with prices down 35% from April peaks but still above pre-war levels.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade firmly around the psychologically crucial 160.00 level against the US Dollar.

Rabobank’s FX Strategy team at RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses how the Dollar initially benefited from safe haven flows during the Iran war, but has since softened as a ceasefire memorandum eased market tensions and tempered Fed hike expectations.

HSBC Asset Management’s Investment Weekly highlights how higher Oil prices, China’s export surge and US AI investment are reshaping the global macro backdrop.

The Euro (EUR) maintains its positive tone against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the EUR/USD pair trading near 10-day highs above 1.1600.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades lower against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday, while the USD/JPY pair is marginally lower at around 160.15 after recovering its early losses.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7070 at the time of writing on Monday, up 0.35% on the day, benefiting from renewed risk appetite after the United States (US) and Iran announced a framework agreement aimed at ending their conflict.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades strongly against the US Dollar (USD) in India's afternoon trading hours on Monday. The USD/INR pair plunges to near 94.60 as oil prices have nosedived, following the announcement that the United States (US) and Iran have reached a permanent peace deal.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the US Dollar has extended losses after the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to end conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) expects the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 1.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting and to lean against market pricing for a 25 bps hike by year-end.