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Euro routed as Warsh's Fed turns the dot plot upside down

June 17, 2026, 7:15:50 PM UTC
Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair was billed as a quiet hold, and on the headline rate it delivered exactly that. Everything wrapped around that hold, however, was a hawkish blow to the Euro.
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Fed raises 2026 interest rate forecast to 3.8%, lifts PCE inflation projections

June 17, 2026, 7:05:20 PM UTC
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest dot plot projections, released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, show policymakers now expect interest rates to stand at 3.8% by the end of 2026, up from 3.4% in March and above the current midpoint of the target range, signaling that offici
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Fed's Warsh: Policymakers don't feel bound by their dots

June 17, 2026, 6:52:26 PM UTC
At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explains why policymakers decided to keep interest rates unchanged following the June meeting and takes questions from reporters on the decision.
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Japanese Yen falls after Fed holds rates, Warsh’s first dot plot signals caution

June 17, 2026, 6:36:44 PM UTC
The USD/JPY pair rises near the 160.40 level after the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, as widely expected, in Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as Fed Chair.
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British Pound sinks as Warsh’s hawkish dots power US Dollar

June 17, 2026, 6:27:36 PM UTC
The British Pound (GBP) collapses during the North American session on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot hinted at a divided central bank, with half of the 18 dots forecasting higher interest rates by the end of 2026, which boosted the Greenback.
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Euro folds as the Fed trades cuts for hikes

June 17, 2026, 6:18:25 PM UTC
The Federal Reserve (Fed) left the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, but the hold was the least interesting part of Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair.
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US Dollar Index storms back as the Fed turns hawkish

June 17, 2026, 6:17:50 PM UTC
The Federal Reserve (Fed) held the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, but Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair was anything but a placeholder.
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Gold price retreats as Fed holds rates, hawkish dots bite

June 17, 2026, 6:15:23 PM UTC
Gold (XAU/USD) price declines as the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, while the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows policymakers expect inflation above the 3% threshold. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades volatily within the $4,330-$4,280 range.
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United States Fed Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.75%)

June 17, 2026, 6:00:41 PM UTC
United States Fed Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.75%)
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USD/CHF stays above 200-day SMA as inverse head-and-shoulders holds

June 17, 2026, 5:48:46 PM UTC
The USD/CHF pair remains steady on Wednesday as market participants await the US central bank's monetary policy decision, with the Federal Reserve expected to hold rates unchanged. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7932, flattish.
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Gold climbs before Warsh’s Fed debut as hawkish tilt looms

June 17, 2026, 5:36:05 PM UTC
Gold (XAU/USD) price rises 0.77% on Wednesday as traders await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, the first one led by Kevin Warsh, in which the central bank is expected to keep rates steady amid the jump in inflation sparked by the Iran war.
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WTI stabilizes below $76 as markets assess the impact of US-Iran deal

June 17, 2026, 5:08:57 PM UTC
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $75.70 on Wednesday at the time of writing, posting a loss of 0.22% on the day.
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EUR/USD: Growth convergence and Fed repricing – ABN AMRO

June 17, 2026, 4:44:04 PM UTC
ABN AMRO’s research examines how evolving Federal Reserve policy and Eurozone fundamentals may shape EUR/USD over the coming quarters.
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Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to 2.5% in May from previous 6.1%

June 17, 2026, 4:00:31 PM UTC
Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to 2.5% in May from previous 6.1%
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Russia Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 9.4% in May from previous 5.5%

June 17, 2026, 4:00:31 PM UTC
Russia Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 9.4% in May from previous 5.5%
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British Pound slips as soft UK CPI clips BoE hike bets

June 17, 2026, 3:56:32 PM UTC
The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats towards 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday following the latest UK inflation report, forcing investors to reassess hawkish bets on the Bank of England (BoE), while solid US Retail Sales boost the Greenback ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision.
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Australian Dollar holds firm as Trump’s Iran comments reduce risk sentiment

June 17, 2026, 3:51:32 PM UTC
The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7070 with a neutral tone on Wednesday, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from improved risk sentiment following the latest developments in the US-Iran conflict.
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United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -8.262M below forecasts (-4.6M) in June 12

June 17, 2026, 2:30:02 PM UTC
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at -8.262M below forecasts (-4.6M) in June 12
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New Zealand Dollar weakens ahead of Fed decision as confidence hits lowest since 2023

June 17, 2026, 2:05:47 PM UTC
NZD/USD trades around 0.5820 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.24% on the day as investors reduce risk exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement.
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United States Pending Home Sales (YoY): 4.8% (May) vs 3.2%

June 17, 2026, 2:00:15 PM UTC
United States Pending Home Sales (YoY): 4.8% (May) vs 3.2%
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United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) above forecasts (0.8%) in May: Actual (3.8%)

June 17, 2026, 2:00:02 PM UTC
United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) above forecasts (0.8%) in May: Actual (3.8%)
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United States Business Inventories meets expectations (0.5%) in April

June 17, 2026, 2:00:01 PM UTC
United States Business Inventories meets expectations (0.5%) in April
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The BoJ just hiked to 1.0%. Why is the Japanese Yen still falling?

June 17, 2026, 1:35:18 PM UTC
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure despite the Bank of Japan’s latest rate hike, with analysts highlighting that the move has not been enough to trigger a sustained  recovery for the Japanese currency.
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“A repeat of 2022’s inflation problems appear less likely”: ECB’s Sleijpen lowers temperature

June 17, 2026, 1:32:03 PM UTC
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olaf Sleijpen said in a speech at an event organized by the European Economics & Financial Center (EEFC) in London on Wednesday that while a repeat of 2022's inflation spike appears less likely, the risk cannot be fully ruled out.
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Canadian Dollar holds near recent lows as Oil slump, Fed outlook weigh

June 17, 2026, 12:45:09 PM UTC
USD/CAD trades around 1.4010 on Wednesday at the time of writing, gaining 0.10% on the day. The pair maintains a bullish tone as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains under pressure from falling Oil prices, while traders position ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.
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United States Dollar: Fed policy shifts and rate path – ABN AMRO

June 17, 2026, 12:44:37 PM UTC
ABN AMRO economists discuss how a new chapter for the Federal Reserve could influence the US Dollar over coming months.
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Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY): -2.4% (May) vs previous -2.3%

June 17, 2026, 12:37:28 PM UTC
Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY): -2.4% (May) vs previous -2.3%
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United States Retail Sales expanded by 0.9% MoM in May

June 17, 2026, 12:34:22 PM UTC
Retail Sales in the United States increased to $763.7 billion in May, the US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. This print followed the 0.5% expansion recorded in the previous month and came in above market expectation (+0.5%). On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 6.9% during this period.
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United States Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 4.9% to 6.9% in May

June 17, 2026, 12:30:42 PM UTC
United States Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 4.9% to 6.9% in May
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United States Retail Sales Control Group rose from previous 0.5% to 0.7% in May

June 17, 2026, 12:30:05 PM UTC
United States Retail Sales Control Group rose from previous 0.5% to 0.7% in May
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