BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage reports that Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament the Euro area outlook is highly uncertain, with growth supported by real incomes and investment but weighed by tariffs, a stronger Euro and geopolitics.

Rabobank’s Michael Every highlights that escalating US–Iran tensions and potential military action could have far‑reaching consequences for Oil markets and broader commodities.

TD Securities commodity strategists see renewed upside in Gold prices. They argue that easier Fed policy, persistent core PCE near 3% and ongoing debasement dynamics could drive Gold toward fresh records around $5,700/oz.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the back foot on Thursday amid cautious sentiment as US-Iran nuclear talks get underway in Geneva, discouraging aggressive positioning.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that U.K. political uncertainty and potential populist outcomes may trigger short-term volatility in Gilts and GBP, but questions the longer-term impact on U.K. government paper.

EUR/GBP moves higher and trades around 0.8720 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.13% on the day.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a mild upside bias on Thursday but remains confined within this week’s trading range as markets stay cautious ahead of key geopolitical developments. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $5,174 as bulls struggle to sustain gains above the $5,200 level.

Mexico Jobless Rate above forecasts (2.6%) in January: Actual (2.7%)

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a remains unchanged at 2.6% in January

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee argues that recent political developments in the United States are creating downside risks for the Dollar.

The NZD/USD pair is down 0.2% to near 0.5980 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Kiwi pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) turns positive ahead of the United States (US) market opening.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the Japanese Yen has recovered slightly, pulling USD/JPY back below 156.00 after touching 156.82, but stresses that loose Bank of Japan policy remains a headwind.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes NZD/USD struggling to hold above 0.6000 as New Zealand’s ANZ business survey signals a solid GDP recovery. Despite improving activity, the RBNZ is expected to remain patient given spare capacity and a negative output gap.

TD Securities’ FX team, led by Jayati Bharadwaj, sees the US Dollar tactically supported as a safe haven on Iran-related geopolitical risks and strong US data, with USD expected to stay bid versus EUR, AUD and crowded G10 shorts.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1800 on Thursday at the time of writing, little changed on the day, after briefly reacting to the downside following comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde.

Italy 10-y Bond Auction: 3.31% vs previous 3.44%

Italy 5-y Bond Auction fell from previous 2.74% to 2.62%

Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 0.54% in February from previous 0.44%

Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 1.45% in February from previous 1.1%

Rabobank’s Michael Every highlights a key UK by‑election as a potential catalyst for Pound and Gilts volatility. Polls show Reform UK, Greens and Labour clustered around 27–28% support, implying any winner will represent a minority of voters.

Eurozone Business Climate increased to -0.36 in February from previous -0.41

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say the outcome of US-Iran nuclear talks will be crucial for Oil, with a sizeable risk premium at stake.

Eurozone Services Sentiment came in at 5, below expectations (7.5) in February

Eurozone Industrial Confidence registered at -7.1, below expectations (-6.1) in February

Eurozone Consumer Confidence in line with forecasts (-12.2) in February

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 98.3, below expectations (99.8) in February

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that some European central bankers, including at the ECB and Riksbank, are increasingly worried about a strong Euro as the US Dollar weakens.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) in afternoon trading hours in India on Thursday. The USD/INR pair ticks up to near 91.15 ahead of nuclear talks between the US and Iran in Geneva later in the day.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, attracts bids after a weak opening around 97.50 and turns slightly positive to near 97.75 during the European trading session on Thursday.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $87.50 per troy ounce, down 1.00% from the $88.38 it cost on Wednesday.