United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 12.8K (January 31) vs 10.3K

TD Securities’ US Macro Strategist Eli Nir analyzes how Artificial Intelligence-related activity affected US GDP in Q4 2025. Strong AI-driven fixed investment lifted Private Domestic Final Purchases, but a surge in computer and semiconductor imports dragged headline GDP lower.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights renewed Japanese Yen weakness after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed reservations about further Bank of Japan rate hikes.

Silver (XAG/USD) regains traction on Tuesday after earlier intraday weakness, as lingering geopolitical and economic risks keep dip buyers active.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that the broader Dollar trend is still mixed, with key inputs today including ADP jobs, consumer confidence, several Fed speakers and President Trump’s State of the Union address.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Dollar is slightly firmer, mainly due to Japanese Yen weakness, with US equities stabilizing after an AI-driven selloff.

Mexico 1st half-month Inflation down to 0.25% in February from previous 0.31%

Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.22% below forecasts (0.27%) in February

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, are down 0.3% to near $66.20 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Oil price is slightly under pressure, but is still close to its over six-month high of $67.23.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Tuesday as a firmer US Dollar (USD) tempers demand for the precious metal, even as geopolitical and economic risks remain in focus. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades near $5,175, down around 1.20% on the day.

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch highlights that the biggest current risk for Oil is a potential US military strike on Iran, which could disrupt flows and sharply tighten supply.

EUR/JPY trades around 183.50 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.60% on the day, mainly benefiting from a weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). The pair’s upward move is driven more by the softness of the Japanese currency than by intrinsic strength in the Euro (EUR).

In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said that even with rising productivity, the central bank needs to keep focus on inflation; responding to short-run issues could cause bigger problems over time.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes that markets now focused on President Trump’s State of the Union and multiple Federal Reserve speakers.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.15% higher to near 97.85 in the European trading session on Tuesday.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Hungary’s MNB to deliver a 25bp rate cut at today’s meeting, though guidance has been mixed after Governor Varga’s earlier hawkish pivot. Softer January inflation and disinflationary HICP trends across the EU provide data-driven justification for easing.

The EUR/USD pair trades in a tight range around 1.1780 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair consolidates even as the US Dollar (USD) trades firmly, suggesting that the Euro (EUR) is also upbeat.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes that the Japanese Yen is weaker as Prime Minister Takaichi signals apprehension about further rate hikes and China retaliates with export controls on Japanese firms.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades vulnerably against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair holds onto Monday's gains near 91.10 despite the strong inflow of foreign funds into the Indian stock market.

Chris Turner at ING expects Sterling traders to focus on parliamentary testimony from four Bank of England policymakers and its implications for a possible March rate cut.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $88.04 per troy ounce, down 0.98% from the $88.91 it cost on Monday.

Dow Jones futures maintain the position near 48,870 during European hours ahead of the US regular market open on Tuesday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures remain steady near 6,850 and 24,780 at the time of writing.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Gold has extended its rebound as markets reprice tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks, including potential US–Iran escalation.

DBS analyst Philip Wee highlights that markets are focused on President Trump’s upcoming State of the Union Address (SOTU), with investors seeking haven exposure ahead of the event.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has underperformed, pushing USD/JPY back above 156.00.

USD/JPY rises nearly 1%, trading around 156.20 during the European hours on Tuesday.

China’s Commerce Ministry expresses willingness to hold the sixth round of trade talks with the United States (US) in a press conference during European trading hours on Tuesday.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Hungary to restart its rate-cutting cycle after September 2024’s last move, citing sharply lower January inflation and benign regional trends.

The GBP/USD pair edges lower to near 1.3480 during the European trading session. The pair is under pressure as the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades broadly uncertain amid firming speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) could deliver a number of interest rate cuts in the near term.

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team notes that trade tensions remain elevated after the European Parliament postponed ratification of the EU-US trade deal over concerns about Trump’s new unilateral 15% tariff.