TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes a significant setback for Labour as the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer wins the Gorton-Denton by-election with over 40% of the vote, leaving Labour third. The team expects Keir Starmer to remain Prime Minister until after May local elections, but anticipates severe Labour losses could trigger a leadership change and increased internal party challenges.

Green surge raises Labour leadership questions

"We have a winner. Hannah Spencer of the Green Party has won the Gorton-Denton by-election with over 40% of the vote."

"Labour came in third with only 25%, nearly halving their 2024 result, and behind Reform at 29%."

"This outcome represents a fair setback for the Labour Party, indicating that Labour is neither the sole alternative to Reform nor the party most capable of consolidating left-leaning voters."

"Nonetheless, losing safe seats in mid-term by-elections is common, and Starmer will have the opportunity to shape the party's narrative and manage his standing over the coming days."

"We expect Starmer to remain Prime Minister until after the May local elections, at which point severe Labour party losses will likely force a change in leadership—and thus a new Prime Minister."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)