Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that Gold briefly traded above USD 5,000 per ounce before slipping back toward USD 4,900, struggling to extend gains. Uncertainty over US interest rate cuts and resilient US economic data are limiting upside, while calmer geopolitics and ongoing negotiations on Iran and Ukraine suggest Gold may oscillate around USD 5,000 for now.

Rates uncertainty and calmer geopolitics

"At the beginning of the week, the gold price briefly rose above the USD 5,000 per troy ounce mark again, but today it is falling back towards USD 4,900. It is thus clearly struggling to make significant price gains. This is likely due in part to the fact that the US interest rate outlook remains uncertain."

"Although expectations of US interest rate cuts (based on Fed Funds Futures) have tended to increase again in recent weeks, stronger-than-expected labor market data last Wednesday showed that the US economy could prove more resilient than thought, reducing the need for rapid interest rate cuts."

"In addition, negotiations are underway to find a (peace) solution to both the conflict with Iran and the war in Ukraine. All of this suggests that the gold price will fluctuate around the USD 5,000 mark for the time being."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)