Commerzbank strategists note Copper has outperformed other base metals, helped by improved macro sentiment around Hormuz and ongoing mine issues. Chilean ore output fell 9% year‑on‑year in March despite a monthly rebound, while Indonesia’s Grasberg mine is running at only 40–50% capacity. They warn that mine‑supply risks could challenge ICSG’s 1.6% growth forecast.

Chilean and Indonesian output risks persist

"The price of copper on the LME has risen nearly 5% this week, outperforming other industrial metals by a wide margin. On the one hand, this is likely due to improved sentiment surrounding the Strait of Hormuz."

"Hopes for a swift reopening reduce the risk of a significant slowdown in the global economy and, consequently, in copper demand. However, this would also reduce the shortage of sulfuric acid, which could have a positive impact on copper production."

"Copper ore production in Chile rose to 434,300 tons in March, following a 9-year low of 378,300 tons recorded in February. Compared to the same month last year, however, the decline in production accelerated to 9% from 4.9% in February."

"This news demonstrates once again that the weak link in global copper production remains mining and the production of copper ore. While the International Copper Study Group forecasts a 1.6% increase in mine production for this year, the risks surrounding this forecast should not be overlooked and could have a direct impact on copper production."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)