TD Securities expects the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations to deliver a more nuanced message than January’s cautious statement. They anticipate discussion of cooled monthly activity into 2026, limited concern over stronger headline CPI given softer core measures, and detailed debate on timing and direction of the next move, including what shocks could shift the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) outlook.

Minutes to balance risks and limits

"We look for the Bank of Canada's Summary of Deliberations to deliver a more nuanced message versus the cautious tone of the January policy statement by balancing the heavy emphasis on heightened uncertainty with acknowledgment of a limited role for the BoC in responding to structural headwinds."

"The minutes should expand on the choppy data backdrop heading into January with acknowledgment that monthly activity has cooled into 2026, and do not expect them to express concern over stronger headline CPI given the softer performance in core measures and impact from one-time factors."

"The minutes should repeat how the Bank discussed a range of possible options for its next move and cite differing views on the timing and direction, and we will also be keenly focused for any new insights around what type of shock would be required for the Bank to conclude that its outlook has shifted from the January MPR."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)