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The USD/JPY is trading up from Wednesday's new floor at 113.30, taking a minor bounce as the Greenback seeks to recoup intraday losses, with key US da
  • USD/JPY exploring a fresh low for the week after Dollar declines on Treasuries.
  • The next meaningful showing for the USD/JPY will be today's US retailers' sales figures.

The USD/JPY is trading up from Wednesday's new floor at 113.30, taking a minor bounce as the Greenback seeks to recoup intraday losses, with key US data due later on for Thursday.

The Dollar-Yen pairing is touching into 113.60 after Thursday's US inflation reading miss, with US Treasury yields declining and dragging the US Dollar with them, while Japanese GDP figures also showed a miss for growth projections.

A fresh chance at challenging the near-term trend will arrive later on Thursday, when the upcoming US trading window will be seeing US Retail Sales for October at 13:30 GMT, and median market expectations are hoping for a recovered showing for Retail Sales excluding cars, calling for a 0.5% reading versus the previous showing of -0.1%.

USD/JPY levels to watch

Plenty of buyers are still in the mix to bring the Dollar-Yen back up the boards, but as noted by FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik, recent declines have left the Yen pairing primed for further declines if lopsided bearish interest continues to mount: "the USD/JPY fell to 113.29, a new weekly low trading a few pips above the level by the end of the US session. The 4 hours chart for the pair shows that it is still developing well above its 100 and 200 SMA, both around the 113.00 level and with the shortest advancing below the larger one as technical indicators resume their declines within negative levels, skewing the risk to the downside. Renewed selling interest below 113.20, now the immediate support should lead to a steeper decline, particularly if Asian shares follow the lead of their overseas counterparts."

Support levels: 113.20 112.85 112.50

Resistance level: 113.90 114.20 114.55

The Australian seasonally-adjusted Unemployment rate for October came in at 5.0%, holding steady at the previous reading and shrugging off broad marke

The Australian seasonally-adjusted Unemployment rate for October came in at 5.0%, holding steady at the previous reading and shrugging off broad market expectations for a tick upwards to 5.1%, while the Australian participation rate moved higher to 65.6%, outpacing both the 65.5% expectation and 65.4% previous showing.

Key highlights (via ABS)

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) 

  • Employment increased 32,800 to 12,671,500. Full-time employment increased 42,300 to 8,703,700 and part-time employment decreased 9,500 to 3,967,900.
  • Unemployment increased 4,600 to 672,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 5,200 to 445,400 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 9,800 to 226,700.
  • Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%.
  • Participation rate increased by 0.1 pts to 65.6%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 6.1 million hours (0.3%) to 1,764.4 million hours.

TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) 

  • Employment increased 25,400 to 12,665,800.
  • Unemployment decreased 7,600 to 680,300.
  • Unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 pts to 5.1%.
  • Participation rate remained steady at 65.6%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 3.6 million hours (0.2%) to 1,761.8 million hours.
     
Australia Part-time employment rose from previous -14.7K to -9.5K in October
Australia Participation Rate above forecasts (65.5%) in October: Actual (65.6%)
Australia Employment Change s.a. came in at 32.8K, above forecasts (20K) in October
Australia Fulltime employment climbed from previous 20.3K to 42.3K in October
Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. below forecasts (5.1%) in October: Actual (5%)
According to Reuters, a member of Ireland's DUP is speaking out against UK Prime Minister Theresa May's still-under-wraps Brexit proposal that is supp

According to Reuters, a member of Ireland's DUP is speaking out against UK Prime Minister Theresa May's still-under-wraps Brexit proposal that is supposedly ready to be signed, and Sammy Wilson is cautioning that British parliament can be expected to throw plenty of wrenches in the works.

Key quotes

The Brexit deal struck by British Prime Minister Theresa May will be appalling to many people who will judge it when it comes to a vote in parliament, a lawmaker from the Northern Irish party that supports May’s government said on Wednesday.

“I think that people will be appalled at this deal. To use (May’s) own words, no deal is better than a bad deal, and I would think that the House of Commons will give their judgment on it when it eventually comes to them,” Sammy Wilson, Brexit spokesman for the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), told the BBC.

There was a risk-off mood in Asia that extended into Europe and US markets on Wednesday sending US treasury yields and US stocks off a cliff. However,
  • Forex today was mostly all about Brexit while the US dollar fell along with US rates as investors moved out of US stocks.
  • The UK Cabinet backed the Brexit plan ahead of a Parliamentary vote. 

There was a risk-off mood in Asia that extended into Europe and US markets on Wednesday sending US treasury yields and US stocks off a cliff. However, Brexit was the main attraction. The pound was very volatile as a result on conflicting headlines rolling out ever 30 minutes near enough.the outcome was that the Cabinet approved the Brexit document, but we now wait for the parliamentary disapproval. This is the most significant risk to the pound and hopes of a Brexit deal because if the Parliament doesn't approve the Brexit agreement, then one possible scenario is there is a snap election, which could feasibly see Labour elected into power.

As for rates, the US 10yr treasury yields initially rose from 3.13% to 3.16% but dropped during the NY afternoon to 3.09%. The dollar was lower due to this and fell a full point to 96.80 with the US 10 years being the lowest so far this month. The shorter-term 2yr yields fell from 2.90% to 2.84% while tracking the Fed fund futures yields repricing the chance of another rate hike in December at 70% (from 75%).

Currency action

EUR/USD was better bid and tracking movement in the dollar and taking its cues from Brexit headlines as well, playing out its derivative role. EUR/USD moved higher from 1.1263 to a high of 1.1344. As far as data, the US core CPI y/y & weakly earnings offered some downside misses and UST yields & US dollar were lower subsequently. EUR/USD was nearing the 10-DMA and fell back towards 1.13 the figure for the NY close. GBP/USD was the main attraction yet again, being tugged and pulled over ever-changing Brexit headlines. The threat to UK's PM May's leadership was weighing the heaviest on the pound despite a Brexit deal signed off ahead of presenting it to Parliament where the BBC reported that the Brexiteers from May's party has been seen calling a no-confidence vote on Thursday. GBP/USD moved between a range of 1.2886 and a high of 1.3037. EUR/GBP was just as choppy and was ending the North American session at 0.8742, higher by +0.43% and traded within a range of between 0.8755-0.8668.  USD/JPY fell on Brexit risk scenarios and made a low of 113.30. However, stocks were falling off a cliff and the VIX was as high as 23 at one stage with the S&P was down 20.60 points, and DJIA was down by  205.99 points leaving USD/JPY exposed to the downside. USD/JPY ended at 113.63. AUD/USD was running higher from 0.7188 and met a high of 0.7253 and closed at 0.7234. The pair was making headway despite the number of risk factors floating around Wednesday's financial markets and was lifted on a stage 1 positive outcome from the Brexit saga going to the wire ahead of a Parliamentary vote as stage 2. However, Aussie jobs are n the cards and will be drawing plenty of the market's attention considering the Sep report that sent the Aussie in a tear due to an impressive change in the unemployment rate. 

Key notes from US session:

  • Wall Street closes in red dragged by financials and technology
  • S&P500 Technical Analysis: Double bottom bull flag can be in the making above 2,700 figure
  • EU's Barnier: Brexit deal brings legal certainty on consequences of Brexit

Key events ahead:

  • When is the Aussie Unemployment report, and how could it affect the AUD/USD

 

 

South Korea Trade Balance down to $6.47B in October from previous $6.55B
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation down to 3.6% in November from previous 4%
Japan Foreign bond investment: ¥-167.3B (January 11)
Japan Foreign investment in Japan stocks unchanged at ¥107.6B in January 11
Fed's Chairman Powell is taking questions at an event called 'Global Perspectives'. Key comments so far: All meetings are live and the public is g

Fed's Chairman Powell is taking questions at an event called 'Global Perspectives'.

Key comments so far:

  • All meetings are live and the public is getting used to that.
  • Our policy is why the economy is in such a good position.
  • Inflation on target.
  • Challenges are how much further to hike.
  • The economy will likely continue in a positive way. 
  • Extend expansion with low inflation.
  • Balance sheet unwinds going well.
  • Prudent to turn balance sheet to normal size - taking it seriously - going very well.
  • The economy has benefitted significantly from trade which needs to be free and fair. 
  • Lower tariffs and better observance of rules is good for the economy and world. 
  • Protectionism would be bad for our economy. 
  • Could see higher inflation and lower growth subject to tariffs.
  • The economy has woven tightly into supply chains.
  • The strength of the global economy is very important.
  • 2017 good year for growth - this year has been a bit of a slow down.
  • Growing signs of a bit of a slowdown and it is concerning. 
  • EMs and old advance economic allies very important.
  • Credit spreads are low because the economy is so good - companies can finance at very low rates. 
  • The US is on an unsustainable fiscal path and will need to be addressed.
  • Fed independence gives legal protection from political involvement, can't be reversed by Congress - accountable and transparent and we must embrace it.

About Jerome H. Powell 

Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018

Aussie Unemployment report overview Early Thursday at 00:30 GMT sees a data dump for Australia, with the key readings being Aussie Unemployment and P

Aussie Unemployment report overview

Early Thursday at 00:30 GMT sees a data dump for Australia, with the key readings being Aussie Unemployment and Participation Rates, both distributing numbers for October. The Unemployment Rate is supposed to tick up slightly to 5.1% after the previous month's peak 65.5.

How could  it affect the AUIDUSD

With the US Dollar taking a much-needed break from broad-market bidding pressure, the AUD is trading begrudgingly  higher, and today's Aussie action will swing entirely based on the early-Thursday data.

Key notes

AUD/USD: Australian dollar broke through 0.72365 resistance; AU employment data at 11.30 hrs

AUD/USD analysis: Australian employment taking center stage

About the Australian Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD
 

With the market's pricing in a Fed hike in December, (Fed fund futures yields repriced the chance of another rate hike in December at 70% (from 75%)),

With the market's pricing in a Fed hike in December, (Fed fund futures yields repriced the chance of another rate hike in December at 70% (from 75%)), while elsewhere, the risks are mounting on a geopolitical and economical macro sense, (perhaps oil's rout is a savour), today's speech from Fed Chair Powell where he is slated to speak at 2300GMT and discussing the US economy, should be one to tune into.

Ahead of the event, we have the greenback down a point to 96.70 lows and being weighed by the 25% drop in oil and US yields pulling back. 

Key notes:

  • Wall Street closes in red dragged by financials and technology
  • S&P500 Technical Analysis: Double bottom bull flag can be in the making above 2,700 figure
  • US yields: 10Y to hit 3.5% in three to six months - Danske Bank

Watch Live:

About Jerome H. Powell 

Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018

 

AUD/USD is faring well considering that the markets are volatile with the VIX climbing as high as to 22.32 and the DJIA falling off a cliff yet again.
  • AUD/USD is defying gravitational pulls and is stubbornly back from the 50% Fibo retracement level to test territory through 0.7220, getting set for the Aussie jobs data showdown.
  • Aussie traders, hold onto your hats, AUD/USD is bound to be the centre of attention in Asia following last month's data showing that the Sep unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 5.3% - (However, we also have Fed Chairman Powell speaking as well as RBA deputy governor Debelle later in the day). 

AUD/USD is faring well considering that the markets are volatile with the VIX climbing as high as to 22.32 and the DJIA falling off a cliff yet again.

  • Wall Street closes in red dragged by financials and technology

That, coupled with US CPI matching expectations and oil on its knees, might lead one to expect commodities, as a whole, to be feeling the pinch. However, commodities were higher and the complex held the line against a risk-off tone.

AUD/USD was recovering from 0.7190 in London and was spurred on after the UK Cabinet news, where a Brexit deal was finally signed off, helped lift the market's spirits. What was really weighing in the greenback was a sense that the Fed may need to reconsider its path of tightening with the price of oil so low within this current rout with the price of WTI making the 61.8% Fibo mark yesterday. Investors were also fleeing into the bond market which weighed on the US 10yr treasury yields that were falling in the afternoon to 3.09% and the lowest yield so far this month. The 2yr yields fell from 2.90% to 2.84 while the Fed fund futures yields repriced lower the chance of another rate hike in December at 70% (from 75%).

Speaking of the Fed, we will have plenty of Fed commentary today, including in today’s Sydney session, with Chairman Powell to discuss the economy from 10am Syd or 6 p.m. Eastern. Considering the performance of the DJIA of late, we might hear what the implications of Fed hikes will have markets and on the global economy. 

The main event for the Aussie

As far as the main event for the Aussie, its already been a busy week that is set to continue at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK with the Oct labour force survey. Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation noted that the Sep report generated many headlines and drew the RBA’s close attention as the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 5.3% - where it had been for 3 months – to 5.0%:

"The weak 6k rise in employment was largely obscured in the upbeat narrative. Statistical noise is probably behind the consensus forecast of a rise to 5.1% despite an expected 20k rebound in jobs. This is also Westpac’s view, with the participation rate ticking back up to 65.5%." We then have RBA deputy governor Debelle participating in a panel discussion on “Assessing the Effects of Housing Lending Policy Measures” from 1pm Syd/10am Sing/HK.

AUD/USD levels

  • Support levels: 0.7200 0.7160 0.7130.     
  • Resistance levels: 0.7240 0.7300 0.7340.

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that the pair is ignoring dollar's strength on European jitters, also Wall Street's slump:

"Its currently holding on to gains and the 4 hours chart offers a neutral-to-bullish stance, with the pair above all of its moving averages, as technical indicators head nowhere around their midlines. The pair holds above the 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run, capped earlier in the day by the 50% retracement of the same advance, now the immediate resistance, with gains above the level opening doors for an advance up to 0.7302 this month high."
 

US Dollar Index (DXY) 4-hour chart The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in a bull trend above the 200-day simple moving average.  DXY has create

US Dollar Index (DXY) 4-hour chart

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in a bull trend above the 200-day simple moving average. 
  • DXY has created a 5-wave pattern. The market is likely in correction mode with a potential target at 96.00 figure. 
  • A break above 97.70 (2018 high) might lead to a continuation up, however, the pullback down is more likely at this stage. 

 

Additional key levels at a glance: 

Dollar Index Spot

Overview:
    Last Price: 97.05
    Daily change: -11 pips
    Daily change: -0.113%
    Daily Open: 97.16
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.47
    Daily SMA50: 95.6
    Daily SMA100: 95.32
    Daily SMA200: 93.44
Levels:
    Daily High: 97.69
    Daily Low: 97.08
    Weekly High: 97.01
    Weekly Low: 95.68
    Monthly High: 97.2
    Monthly Low: 94.79
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 97.31
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 97.46
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.93
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.7
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 96.32
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 97.54
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 97.92
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 98.15

 

It didn't take long for major equity indexes to slip into the negative territory and close lower following a positive start to the day. Comments from
  • Financials weigh on the DJIA on Wednesday.
  • Apple extends slide to drag technology lower.
  • Industrials pare early gains as EU says they are ready to retaliate against US tariffs.

It didn't take long for major equity indexes to slip into the negative territory and close lower following a positive start to the day.

Comments from the next possible chair of the House banking committee Maxine Waters, who said banking regulations would not be eased any further on her watch, weighed on the S&P 500 Financials Index and forced it to close 1.38% lower. Moreover, the financial-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average erased 203.99 points, or 0.81%, to close at 25,082.50 points. 

In the meantime, concerns over iPhone sales continued to push investors away from Apple and the company's shares lost 2.82% on the day to drag the S&P 500 Technology Index 1.3% lower on the day. Finally, the trade-sensitive S&P 500 Industrials Index lost 0.37% after the EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said that the EU had the retaliation tariff list ready if the U.S. were to impose autos tariffs on the EU.

The S&P 500 lost 20.36 points, or 0.75%, to 2,701.82 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 64.48 points, or 0.9%, to 7,136.39 on Wednesday.

DJIA technical outlook by FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik

The Dow closed at its lower since late October, and below all of its moving averages in the daily chart that anyway lack directional strength. The Momentum indicator in the mentioned chart remains flat above its 100 level, but the RSI indicator head strongly south below its mid-line now around 41.

In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart,  the risk is also skewed to the downside, with the 20 SMA gaining downward traction well above the current level, the index developing below all of its moving averages, and technical indicators well into negative ground. The RSI in this last time-frame accelerates south by the end of the day, currently at 27, anticipating some additional declines ahead.

Support levels: 25,024 - 24,973 - 24,932.

Resistance levels:  25,091 - 25,147 - 25,190.

United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 8.79M (November 9) vs 7.83M
EUR/JPY 4-hour chart EUR/JPY is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart.  EUR/JPY found some resi

EUR/JPY 4-hour chart

  • EUR/JPY is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart. 
  • EUR/JPY found some resistance at the 129.00 resistance suggesting that a pullback down to 128.00 and 127.50 can be in the making. 
  • If bulls support the market at those levels the market might be creating a double bottom.

Additional key levels at a glance:

EUR/JPY

Overview:
    Last Price: 128.52
    Daily change: 12 pips
    Daily change: 0.0935%
    Daily Open: 128.4
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 128.7
    Daily SMA50: 129.88
    Daily SMA100: 129.52
    Daily SMA200: 130.15
Levels:
    Daily High: 128.78
    Daily Low: 127.5
    Weekly High: 130.16
    Weekly Low: 128.6
    Monthly High: 132.49
    Monthly Low: 126.63
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 128.29
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 127.98
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 127.67
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 126.94
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 126.39
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 128.95
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 129.5
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 130.23

 

Irish PM Leo Varadkar is now delivering his comments on the draft Brexit agreement. Key quotes (via Reuters) Reached a satisfactory outcome on Iri

Irish PM Leo Varadkar is now delivering his comments on the draft Brexit agreement.

Key quotes (via Reuters)

  • Reached a satisfactory outcome on Irish priorities.
  • Backstop is now ‘fully set out’ in withdrawal agreement.
  • Final end date for extended transition still to be decided.
  • There will be an end date if transition is extended.
Assessing the draft Brexit agreement between the UK and the EU, Moody's noted that a number of challenges remained and the Brexit process would contin

Assessing the draft Brexit agreement between the UK and the EU, Moody's noted that a number of challenges remained and the Brexit process would continue for some time.

Key quotes

  • While today's announcement of an agreement represents a positive step on the path to a negotiated Brexit, it is far from the end of the process.
  • Developments in the UK Parliament will be critical, and ultimately the value of the withdrawal agreement hinges on whether Prime Minister May can persuade a majority of MPs to support it in a parliamentary vote.
  • If the UK parliament does not support the agreement then -- in the absence of further developments -- the EU and the UK will be heading for a no-deal Brexit by default.
    • That would have significant negative consequences for a range of issuers.
  • Given the wide range of views among UK Members of Parliament (MPs), it is far from certain that a majority of MPs will vote in favour of the agreement.
EUR/USD, for the most part, has traded around dollar and sterling flows on Wednesday. The single unit managed to hold in the positive territory within
  • Despite most risk assets turning lower, EUR/USD has been better bid on Wednesday in both European and US markets although falling short of the 50% retracement of Nov 7th decline from 1.1499.
  • EUR/USD has been tracking the dollar's and weakness and US yields in decline despite in-line CPI and the largest increase in 9 months and a negative German GDP print.
  • EUR/USD is trading like a derivative of sterling and Brexit headlines. 

EUR/USD, for the most part, has traded around dollar and sterling flows on Wednesday. The single unit managed to hold in the positive territory within its comeback from the 1.1215 lows, rising to a recent high of 1.1341 as the dollar falls over from the 97.40s double top area down to 96.77.

The single unit has held on despite the bad news from both Germany and Italy. Firstly, the German economy, the euro zone's core, had contracted in the third quarter for the first time since 2015. However, some of the weakness may just be temporary where a disruption to car manufacturing (related to new emissions tests) has weighed. Overall, the second read on Eurozone Q3 GDP was confirmed at 0.2% q/q, in line with the market's expectation at 0.2%; (last: 0.2%). Italy's print, on the other hand, came in at 0.0%; And that's not all, (nor was it a surprise).

Italy’s populist government defiantly refused to bow to EU demands to change its big-spending budget for next year and are sticking to their deficit target which was hitting bonds and BTP futures with interior minister Matteo Salvini declaring on Wednesday: “We won’t budge a millimetre.”

Politics, politics and, well, more politics

  • EU's Barnier: Brexit deal brings legal certainty on consequences of Brexit

Sticking with politics, it was all about Brexit in the main and at the time of writing, EU's Barnier is speaking at a press conference following the Brexit deal crossing the finish line with the UK Cabinet's approval of  PM May's draft deal, saying that the backstop is not meant to be used. The EU has said that the UK and EU will access each other's markets on the basis of equivalence.

US dollar losing its footing again

  • US: Inflation allows the Fed to continue raising rates gradually - RBC

The US dollar, in all of this, lest we forget, has been on a downward spiral and is testing a key support area at this juncture at around 96.70/80. Indeed, the dollar is weaker again and perhaps undervalued when considering the number of geopolitical and general risks out there that are keeping the markets cautious, including the rout in oil, China’s slowing growth, tightening liquidity and a hawkish Fed. One of the main catalysts to investor's flight to safety, when looking at the decline in US yields (move inversely to bid in bonds), would be the 25% decline in oil.

Meanwhile, the US CPI print showed the largest increase in nine months, and oil would have played its part in that also. However, now with oil falling away so heavily on poor demand outlooks, perhaps the market can reassess the Fed's rate policy? As crowded as the dollar has been, it is vulnerable to the downside on a less hawkish outlook for the Fed. 

  • US yields: 10Y to hit 3.5% in three to six months - Danske Bank

Fed's Chairman Powell to spark more volatility? 

Looking ahead for today, we will hear from Fed's Chairman Powell in early Asia who will be discussing the US economy from around 10 am Sydney time/ 6 p.m. Eastern. Considering the performance of the DJIA of late, we might hear from him what the implications of Fed hikes will have markets and on the global economy - (Making for the perfect addition to what has already been a volatile day in the FX-Space and general financial markets - The VIX is at 20.27 +0.25 (+1.25%) on the day).

EUR/USD levels

  • Support levels: 1.1240 1.1215 1.1180.
  • Resistance levels: 1.1325 1.1355 1.1390.

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explained that the pair eased from the mentioned high following a collapse in Pound, finishing the day around 1.1300:

"The 4 hours chart indicates that the pair lost part of its upward strength, barely holding above a bearish 20 SMA which converges with the 23.6% retracement of the latest daily decline, as technical indicators lost upward strength, the Momentum above its mid-line and the RSI at around 50. The pair failed to retain gains above the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned decline after nearing the 50% retracement of the same slump at 1.1355, with gains beyond this last needed for a firmer advance."

 

 

 USD/MXN - Daily Chart Overview:     Last Price: 20.3388     Daily change: -0.668%     Daily Open: 20.4755 Trends:     Daily SMA20: 19.7883
  • Mexican peso recovered ground against US dollar ahead of the Banxico meeting and amid a correction of the greenback against emerging-market currencies on Wednesday. Still, the bearish pressure persists. 
  • The rally of USD/MXN peaked at 20.59 and failed to post a daily close above 20.50, suggesting that it could consolidate around current levels and even could correct to 20.25, before bouncing back to the upside. 
  • A consolidation above 20.50 would clear the way to 20.75 and above, attention would turn to 20.90, the last barrier before 21.00. 
  • Bullish perspective for USD/MXN to remain intact while above 19.90. 

 USD/MXN - Daily Chart

USD/MXN

Overview:
    Last Price: 20.3388
    Daily change: -0.668%
    Daily Open: 20.4755
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 19.7883
    Daily SMA50: 19.2854
    Daily SMA100: 19.1397
    Daily SMA200: 19.1179
Levels:
    Daily High: 20.594
    Daily Low: 20.267
    Weekly High: 20.425
    Weekly Low: 19.5758
    Monthly High: 20.484
    Monthly Low: 18.5
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 20.4691
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 20.3919
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 20.297
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 20.1185
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 19.97
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 20.624
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 20.7725
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 20.951

 

S&P500 4-hour chart The S&P500 is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart.  The S&P500 is vulnera

S&P500 4-hour chart

  • The S&P500 is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart. 
  • The S&P500 is vulnerable to further downside move but bears will need to keep the market below the 2,700 level on a daily closing basis.
  • On the flip side, bulls are trying to create a double bottom bull flag with the early November low. The market needs to stabilize some more above 2,700 in order to confirm a continuation up. 

Additional key levels at a glance:

SP 500

Overview:
    Last Price: 2716.25
    Daily change: -1.3e+3 pips
    Daily change: -0.458%
    Daily Open: 2728.75
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 2734.01
    Daily SMA50: 2820.5
    Daily SMA100: 2832.06
    Daily SMA200: 2767.94
Levels:
    Daily High: 2756
    Daily Low: 2715.25
    Weekly High: 2818.75
    Weekly Low: 2713.5
    Monthly High: 2939.5
    Monthly Low: 2604.5
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 2740.43
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 2730.82
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 2710.67
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 2692.58
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 2669.92
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 2751.42
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 2774.08
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 2792.17

 

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is now delivering his remarks following the UK Cabinet's approval of the Prime Minister Theresa May's

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is now delivering his remarks following the UK Cabinet's approval of the Prime Minister Theresa May's draft deal.

Key quotes (via LiveSquawk)

  • Brexit deal brings legal certainty on consequences of Brexit.
  • This deal is a crucial step towards concluding talks.
  • Ready to start negotiating future trade deal on the ‘day after Brexit’.
Today?s data showed that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in October in the US. That remains below the 2.9% peak seen in June and July when energy p

Today’s data showed that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in October in the US. That remains below the 2.9% peak seen in June and July when energy prices were providing even more upward pressure, explained Josh Nye, Senior Economist at RBC Capital Markets.

Key Quotes: 

“There were no surprises in this morning’s October inflation report. Headline CPI ticked up to 2.5% year-over-year from 2.3% in the previous month. As expected, higher energy prices were the culprit. That move should be reversed in November with gasoline prices having fallen over the last month and oil prices continuing to trend lower, including an eye-watering loss yesterday.”

“Core inflation saw a trend-like 0.2% month-over-month increase in October but the year-over-year rate edged down to 2.1%. That rate has been above 2% for six months now in one of the most sustained periods of near-target inflation this cycle.”

“With the economy operating at or beyond its longer run capacity limits, it isn’t surprising that core inflation seems to have found a floor around the Fed’s objective.”

“Well-behaved inflation allows the Fed to continue raising rates gradually. But looking at a broader set of indicators, starting with 3.8% GDP growth over the last two quarters, it is clear that monetary policy accommodation is no longer needed. We expect a rate hike in December—the fourth this year—and a continuation of once-a-quarter moves in 2019.”
 

AUD/USD 4-hour chart AUD/USD is trading in a bull trend above the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart. AUD/USD is bouncing from

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

  • AUD/USD is trading in a bull trend above the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart.
  • AUD/USD is bouncing from the 0.7160 support as technical indicators are in positive territories. 
  • AUD/USD bulls will likely set their eyes on 0.7300 figure as a target for the coming sessions. 

Additional key levels at a glance:

AUD/USD

Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7247
    Daily change: 36 pips
    Daily change: 0.499%
    Daily Open: 0.7211
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7148
    Daily SMA50: 0.7161
    Daily SMA100: 0.7259
    Daily SMA200: 0.7462
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.7226
    Daily Low: 0.7164
    Weekly High: 0.7304
    Weekly Low: 0.7183
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7202
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7187
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7174
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7138
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7112
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7237
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7263
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7299

  

"The EU has retaliation tariff list ready if the U.S. Imposes autos tariffs on the EU," the EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said, according to

"The EU has retaliation tariff list ready if the U.S. Imposes autos tariffs on the EU," the EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said, according to Reuters. 

"Discussed cooperation on U.S. soybeans, regulations for pharma, medical devices and other sectors with USTR Lighthizer," Malmstrom added.

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